2014考研英语：阅读素材赏析（二）
Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply－cuts in March， the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel， up from less than $10 last December． This near－tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock， when prices quadrupled， and 1979－1980， when they also almost tripled． Both previous shocks resulted in double－digit inflation and global economic decline． So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports． Strengthening economic growth， at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere， could push the price higher still in the short term．
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s． In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s． In Europe， taxes account for up to four－fifths of the retail price， so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past．
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were， and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price． Energy conservation， a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy， energy－intensive industries have reduced oil consumption． Software， consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production． For each dollar of GDP （inconstant prices） rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973． The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that， if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998， this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0．25－0．5% of GDP． That is less than one－quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980． On the other hand， oil－importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy－intensive， and so could be more seriously squeezed．
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that， unlike the rises in the 1970s， it has not occurred against the background of general commodity－price inflation and global excess demand． A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline． The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago． In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%， and in 1979 by almost 30%．
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过去经济衰落的糟糕日子会不会重来?自从石油输出国组织在3月同意减少原油供应，原油的价格已经从去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到约26美元一桶。这次近3倍的涨价令人想起了1973年的恐慌，当时油价上涨了4倍；以及1979―1980年的那一次，当时的油价也上涨了近3倍。前两次的石油恐慌都导致了两位数的通货膨胀和全球性的经济衰退。那么这次警告人们厄运来临的头版新闻都到哪里去了呢?
本周伊拉克暂停石油出口，这又一次推动着油价上扬。强劲的经济增长势头，加上北半球冬季的到来，有可能在短期内使石油价格涨得更高。
然而，我们有充分的理由预期这次油价暴涨带来的经济影响不会像70年代那么严重。现在多数国家的原油价格占汽油价格的份额比70年代要小很多。在欧洲，税占了汽油零售价的4/5，因此，即使原油价格发生很大的波动，汽油价格所受的影响也不会像过去那么显著。
发达国家对石油的依赖也比从前要少得多，因此对油价的波动也就不会那么敏感。能源储备、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工业的重要性的降低，都减少了石油消耗。软件、咨询及移动通讯消耗的石油，比钢铁、汽车行业少得多。发达国家国民生产总值中每一个美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。国际经合组织在其最近一期的《经济展望》中估计，如果全年油价均价22美元左右，与1998年的13美元一桶相比，这仅仅会使发达国家的石油进口在支出上增加GDP的 0．25%―0．5%。这还不到1974年或1980年收入损失部分的1/4。另一方面，由于重工业转移至一些新兴石油进口国，它们对能源可能更加敏感，也更可能会受到强烈影响。
另外一个不应因油价上升而失眠的原因是，与70年代的上涨不同，这次油价上升的大背景不是普遍的物价暴涨及全球过旺的需求。世界上很多地区才刚刚走出经济衰落。《经济学家》的商品价格指数一年来总的来说没有什么变化。1973年的商品价格跃升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。
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